Tooting my horn is somewhat similar to complaining for me. It is basically a motif. On the flipside, I also have no problem admitting when something happens that I simply did not see coming. If you read my previous blog post, you likely drew from that, a slightly skeptical, yet optimistic tone. As a fan who enjoys talking about aspects of the game that I have a particular affinity for, I watch the Raiders from the outside looking in, and slowly my trepidation for the rash moves of a goofy owner with a bowl cut are leaving. Overall, and maybe most ironically, you will not hear me complain about that.
The problem here, is there is no way I can continue in my right mind to be this positive in general. What is bizarre is what has me on edge more than anything. Rather than being unsure coaching staffs (because Gruden has assembled a borderline fantastic group of assistants), what is eating at my craw recently is the absurd recency bias within Raider Nation and the utterly absurd notion that the team on the whole, is not talented.
One of my great pet peeves and most frequent complaints, is differentiating the idea that a team lacks talent versus it having proven commodities. Fans have come to prefer proven commodities even if those assets lack talent, over the natural process of long term roster development. It has come to the point especially with the pseudo hipster anti Reggie backlash of nonsensicality (yeah try to top that one), where every pick is thrown under the bus before they have a chance to make a mark in the cases of Conley and Melifonwu, while a player like Karl Joseph is now treated as a scrub of some kind after a second year of attempting to bail out Reggie Nelson's bad decisions.
Folks, free agency is not a panacea for all that ails a football team and more importantly for the Raiders, the single biggest change that could be made has been made and that will have a far greater affect on the team than a mediocre cornerback signed in free agency, or a competent nose tackle. Free agency is a tool and fans should look at it as a way to supplement talent issues especially as it pertains to depth and not as a long term solution for the most important positions. I realize the relative irony of a Raiders fan saying not to focus too much on free agency especially since the acquisition of four of the starting offensive lineman this season were through free agency, but this is a roster that has found a top end quarterback (nonsensical Derek Carr haters who cannot comprehend route concepts best stay out of my mentions or thou shalt be blocked with immediate haste and malicious intent), a multiple defensive player of the year at defensive end, drafted a wide receiver with a top 10 best first two years in the history of the NFL who also set a new high in yearly touchdowns, and lastly three very young highly dynamic defensive backs who WILL make an impact.
What the Raiders need is not to attempt to fix every issues in free agency, but to find the gems that will make a positive impact who maintain relative value. People assume that because Jon Gruden is the head coach that suddenly the Raiders will have thirty year old starters from free agency at every position. I say "nay nay" and rather what attracted Jon to this job was the youth at key positions. What I want to do in this edition of the VEGAS Archives, is to lay out 5 offseason/free agency related moves that will be a necessity for the Raiders and focus on positions that supplement the talent of the draft. As in previous years, this year's needs for the Raiders line up nicely with the strengths of the draft which also are significantly different than the strengths of free agency.
The Value Position: Wide Receiver
The problem here, is there is no way I can continue in my right mind to be this positive in general. What is bizarre is what has me on edge more than anything. Rather than being unsure coaching staffs (because Gruden has assembled a borderline fantastic group of assistants), what is eating at my craw recently is the absurd recency bias within Raider Nation and the utterly absurd notion that the team on the whole, is not talented.
One of my great pet peeves and most frequent complaints, is differentiating the idea that a team lacks talent versus it having proven commodities. Fans have come to prefer proven commodities even if those assets lack talent, over the natural process of long term roster development. It has come to the point especially with the pseudo hipster anti Reggie backlash of nonsensicality (yeah try to top that one), where every pick is thrown under the bus before they have a chance to make a mark in the cases of Conley and Melifonwu, while a player like Karl Joseph is now treated as a scrub of some kind after a second year of attempting to bail out Reggie Nelson's bad decisions.
Folks, free agency is not a panacea for all that ails a football team and more importantly for the Raiders, the single biggest change that could be made has been made and that will have a far greater affect on the team than a mediocre cornerback signed in free agency, or a competent nose tackle. Free agency is a tool and fans should look at it as a way to supplement talent issues especially as it pertains to depth and not as a long term solution for the most important positions. I realize the relative irony of a Raiders fan saying not to focus too much on free agency especially since the acquisition of four of the starting offensive lineman this season were through free agency, but this is a roster that has found a top end quarterback (nonsensical Derek Carr haters who cannot comprehend route concepts best stay out of my mentions or thou shalt be blocked with immediate haste and malicious intent), a multiple defensive player of the year at defensive end, drafted a wide receiver with a top 10 best first two years in the history of the NFL who also set a new high in yearly touchdowns, and lastly three very young highly dynamic defensive backs who WILL make an impact.
What the Raiders need is not to attempt to fix every issues in free agency, but to find the gems that will make a positive impact who maintain relative value. People assume that because Jon Gruden is the head coach that suddenly the Raiders will have thirty year old starters from free agency at every position. I say "nay nay" and rather what attracted Jon to this job was the youth at key positions. What I want to do in this edition of the VEGAS Archives, is to lay out 5 offseason/free agency related moves that will be a necessity for the Raiders and focus on positions that supplement the talent of the draft. As in previous years, this year's needs for the Raiders line up nicely with the strengths of the draft which also are significantly different than the strengths of free agency.
The Value Position: Wide Receiver
Beyond a shadow of a doubt the position that offers the most value and to me it is not close, is wide receiver. The free agency class at wide receiver includes Sammy Watkins, Terrelle Pryor, Marquise Lee, the Browns from Arizona, Tyler Gabriel, Paul Richardson, and many more. To me, the gem of this class that is young, has a history in west coast style offenses, has a top five contested catch rate, and can move all over the field is Albert Wilson.
The Chiefs found Wilson as an undrafted free agent coming out of college. He is not a Sparq freak, nor is he someone who will blow you away by his dimensions (he is 5'09), but he does all the little things well and understands the role of a third wide receiver. For a team like the Raiders who will go back to more two wide receiver sets relying more on 12 and 21 personnel, having a consistent 600 yard guy as your third wide receiver who can make contested catches is valuable. Most importantly, this allows Patterson and Roberts to remain entrenched as the four and five allowing them to dominate on special teams. Along with retaining Michael Crabtree, whose role in the end of year drama is still unknown, the Raiders would be in a position to have solidified their receiving corps while ignoring a weak position in the 2018 draft.
The Enigma Postion: Nose Teckle
The Chiefs found Wilson as an undrafted free agent coming out of college. He is not a Sparq freak, nor is he someone who will blow you away by his dimensions (he is 5'09), but he does all the little things well and understands the role of a third wide receiver. For a team like the Raiders who will go back to more two wide receiver sets relying more on 12 and 21 personnel, having a consistent 600 yard guy as your third wide receiver who can make contested catches is valuable. Most importantly, this allows Patterson and Roberts to remain entrenched as the four and five allowing them to dominate on special teams. Along with retaining Michael Crabtree, whose role in the end of year drama is still unknown, the Raiders would be in a position to have solidified their receiving corps while ignoring a weak position in the 2018 draft.
The Enigma Postion: Nose Teckle
Nose tackle is an enigma for the Raiders on multiple levels. Firstly, by brining in Paul Guenther the Raiders will be going towards a very creative but more traditional four man front that uses a more traditional combination inside at the three technique and nose tackle. In both Cincinnati and Minnesota where this scheme is run very successfully, the nose tackle is filled by a guy that stands somewhere between 6'02 and 6'04 and weighs approximately 325 pounds. Yes Paul Guenther has said that he does not have typical prototypes for guys who fit his scheme and instead he looks how to use any talent (very Wade Phillips-esque), we can draw a couple conclusions from the Bengals and Vikings. Most notably, whomever the Raiders have at nose tackle, it will be a traditional skill set.
The same goes for three technique where both teams have starters who are 6'03 or less and 295 pounds or less. Mario Edwards Jr weighs in at 280 pounds and is approximately 6'03. This is an almost identical build to Tom Johnson the starter for the Vikings. Eddie Vanderdoes is also approximately 6'03 and weighs in at about 320 pounds, but due to his injury the Raiders do have a depth concern. Although the draft is deep at nose tackle, the Raiders would be wise to grab one in free agency and then double down in the draft. Later in the year when Vanderdoes comes off of PUP, the team can decide between Latham and Ward for who is moved. Speaking of Ward, although he is tall, he seems to me to be the backup three technique. What he does have that has not been seen much due to silly coaching, is a quick first step and I think he does fit as a sub package guy. I do not see Autry being retained, and to wrap up the front four, the edge defenders should be Mack and Calhoun on the strongside with Irvin and Cowser on the weakside. Examining both the Vikings and Bengals, you will actually not find easily identified prototypes on the edges, but those four do fit the relative ranges we see with both the Vikings and Bengals,.
What continues to make nose tackle an enigma is the players available. My personal favorite who seems to fit schematically is Bennie Logan. This is guy who has consistently been miscast at multiple teams but saw his best flashes with Philadelphia. This last year at Kansas City did him a disservice, but in a Guenther scheme he could be quite productive. Other names to watch are Dontari Poe, Sheldon Richardson (who is thought of as a three but I could see after a down year moving to more of a nose tackle role), Star Lotuleilei, Pat Sims, Tyrunn Walker, Jay Bromley, and Beau Allen. Of course they could always consider resigning Jelly Ellis as well.
The GIF Position: Strong Safety
The same goes for three technique where both teams have starters who are 6'03 or less and 295 pounds or less. Mario Edwards Jr weighs in at 280 pounds and is approximately 6'03. This is an almost identical build to Tom Johnson the starter for the Vikings. Eddie Vanderdoes is also approximately 6'03 and weighs in at about 320 pounds, but due to his injury the Raiders do have a depth concern. Although the draft is deep at nose tackle, the Raiders would be wise to grab one in free agency and then double down in the draft. Later in the year when Vanderdoes comes off of PUP, the team can decide between Latham and Ward for who is moved. Speaking of Ward, although he is tall, he seems to me to be the backup three technique. What he does have that has not been seen much due to silly coaching, is a quick first step and I think he does fit as a sub package guy. I do not see Autry being retained, and to wrap up the front four, the edge defenders should be Mack and Calhoun on the strongside with Irvin and Cowser on the weakside. Examining both the Vikings and Bengals, you will actually not find easily identified prototypes on the edges, but those four do fit the relative ranges we see with both the Vikings and Bengals,.
What continues to make nose tackle an enigma is the players available. My personal favorite who seems to fit schematically is Bennie Logan. This is guy who has consistently been miscast at multiple teams but saw his best flashes with Philadelphia. This last year at Kansas City did him a disservice, but in a Guenther scheme he could be quite productive. Other names to watch are Dontari Poe, Sheldon Richardson (who is thought of as a three but I could see after a down year moving to more of a nose tackle role), Star Lotuleilei, Pat Sims, Tyrunn Walker, Jay Bromley, and Beau Allen. Of course they could always consider resigning Jelly Ellis as well.
The GIF Position: Strong Safety
My choice for GIF position almost always needs some explaining. In this instance, strong safety is my GIF position because I am haunted by the bad play of Reggie Nelson who forced Karl Joseph out of position. Joseph is a natural free safety and I believe Obi Melifonwu will quickly prove how good he is at strong safety especially in a system like Guenther's which is similar to what Obi played in for four years in college. That being said, the Raiders do need a backup strong safety.
Names like Reid, Vaccarro, and Burnett will certainly be sexier names, but McDougald was a very solid player for Tampa Bay and I do not think he would be opposed to earning and fighting for a starting slot. That way even if he did hold Obi off for a year or so, once he was replaced he would not see it as a slight. He is also only 27 and likely has special teams experience. All of these attributes would make him extremely valuable for any franchise and the Raiders could get him on a team friendly contract for three years or so.
The Anderson Position: Slot Cornerback
Names like Reid, Vaccarro, and Burnett will certainly be sexier names, but McDougald was a very solid player for Tampa Bay and I do not think he would be opposed to earning and fighting for a starting slot. That way even if he did hold Obi off for a year or so, once he was replaced he would not see it as a slight. He is also only 27 and likely has special teams experience. All of these attributes would make him extremely valuable for any franchise and the Raiders could get him on a team friendly contract for three years or so.
The Anderson Position: Slot Cornerback
I am a rabid advocate of defensive subpackages and Paul Guenther is a defensive coordinator that likes to play around with multiple looks and versatile toys. TJ Carrie has had an interesting career with the Raiders and he should be one of the two guys the Raiders ensure they bring back. Firstly, in the off chance that Amerson who likely will stay since he is an ideal skill fit and his injury issues do not go beyond this year which goes against most recency bias, Carrie can fill in outside. He has however, shown serious chops in the slot especially as a blitzing slot cornerback something he was woefully underused at. TJ is a smart player and very versatile and although this free agency class has top end talent, it gets soft and shaky. The draft is very deep at cornerback and thus I do think the Raiders can address the position anytime in the first four picks and find a starter to develop.
The Stud Position: Inside Linebacker
The Stud Position: Inside Linebacker
Ok, ok, ok, I admit, this is kinda me trolling. I always talk about how a defense can scheme around inside linebackers, but the reason this is the stud position to me is because of NaVorro. His play this year really helped settle a young linebacker group and will admit his experience was very helpful. Reggie needs to get this man to sign a two year contract in the realm of 10 million dollars, which would be a relative value. Guenther's scheme unlike the Seattle scheme or even Pagano's does not highly specialize the outside linebacker positions of Will and Sam. In many respects they are treated very similarly which leads me to believe that we could absolutely see both James and Morrow starting at those positions.
Before I end this post I want to throw out a bit of a prediction of sorts. In doing research for this post and the direction I think the Raiders are going to go, I have come to some early conclusions on who the Raiders draft. I will do my VEGAS Archives for most of the positions predraft, but there are some overwhelming trends I have become increasingly mindful of. What is somewhat annoying for me, is I do think the Raiders will draft positions of lesser value early in this draft. When you consider what I lay out for free agency additions and how players could fit into this defense schematically, a draft like the following seems all too fitting:
Round 1: Roquan Smith LB Georgia- likely plays one of the outside spots early until he takes over for Bowman. James becomes other starter.
Round 2: Sony Michel RB Georgia- this could also easily be Guice, Johnson, or Jones. All of them remind me of Charlie Garner to some extent.
Round 3: Tony Brown CB Bama- Raiders did add the Tide's DB coach to the staff
Round 4: Josh Sweat Edge FSU- This guy reminds me of Donielle Hunter and I think his skill set and age will appeal to Guenther
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Round 5-6 (trade up possibly): Du'Vonta Lampkin NT Sooners: Early leaver with academic issues but tremendous raw talent. Needs to lose the extra pounds but can help long term at NT.
Before I end this post I want to throw out a bit of a prediction of sorts. In doing research for this post and the direction I think the Raiders are going to go, I have come to some early conclusions on who the Raiders draft. I will do my VEGAS Archives for most of the positions predraft, but there are some overwhelming trends I have become increasingly mindful of. What is somewhat annoying for me, is I do think the Raiders will draft positions of lesser value early in this draft. When you consider what I lay out for free agency additions and how players could fit into this defense schematically, a draft like the following seems all too fitting:
Round 1: Roquan Smith LB Georgia- likely plays one of the outside spots early until he takes over for Bowman. James becomes other starter.
Round 2: Sony Michel RB Georgia- this could also easily be Guice, Johnson, or Jones. All of them remind me of Charlie Garner to some extent.
Round 3: Tony Brown CB Bama- Raiders did add the Tide's DB coach to the staff
Round 4: Josh Sweat Edge FSU- This guy reminds me of Donielle Hunter and I think his skill set and age will appeal to Guenther
du
Round 5-6 (trade up possibly): Du'Vonta Lampkin NT Sooners: Early leaver with academic issues but tremendous raw talent. Needs to lose the extra pounds but can help long term at NT.