2017 Raiders Cap Projection:
Probably Not What You Expect
Deep into the third quarter of a week 16 game where the Raiders were home to the Indianapolis Colts, Derek Carr sets up to throw a pass and for the first time has a Colts defender within his area code. As he attempts to find an open the receiver, the defender who is now on the ground, bear crawls and grabs onto Carr's ankle. In a split second, Carr attempts to spin away then goes down in a heap. Raider Nation could see it on his lip. "It's broken". It was that very moment when I realized the season was over.
The Raiders had a phenomenal season. I hoped for a 9-7 season, and we were blessed with a 12-4 outcome. Two weeks after that game, the Raiders led by fourth round rookie quarterback Connor Cook, were beaten in a relatively meager effort against the Houston Texans, who in turn got the snot beat out of them by the Patriots. If it makes Raider Nation feel better, the Kansas Chiefs won precisely the same amount of playoff games this year as the Raiders did. None.
Unlike most seasons, I had not really thought about the offseason approach for the Raiders until that very moment when Carr got hurt. Week 16 is much later than the week 8 that was typical for the last 4 years of my blogging career. While on the subject of "not typical", it is the not so humble opinion of mine, that the Raiders will not do what everyone expects from them and go into another major free agency overhaul. In fact, it is my belief that the Raiders will not sign a single free agent. I absolutely withhold the right to be utterly wrong, but I will throw out some facts to show this is not just a hot take but a well reasoned assessment.
Retaining Talent-
The Oakland Raiders have drafted very well over the last several drafts and now we will witness those draft picks cash in. First and foremost are Derek Carr and Gabe Jackson. Many lump Khalil Mack into this group, however, he was drafted in round one so he has a fifth year option the Raiders will pick up. This gives the Raiders an extra year to get him extended, even though they can extend him this offseason. Moreover, the fifth year option once picked up, will act as a beginning place for negotiations, as the player agent and the team will use it to build the structure of the deal. It really is a tool to assist negotiations for both sides. Also, it behooves the Raiders to stagger the signings of Carr and Mack that way the contract structures do not overlap in ways that can potentially make tough decisions on both guys occur at once.
According to Over The Cap (http://overthecap.com/salary-cap/oakland-raiders/), the Raiders are looking at approximately 130 million dollars in cap liabilities. The NFL will be raising the cap to somewhere between 160 and 170 million. For approximation purposes, we will copy OTC and use 168 million as the 2017 cap. Also, as part of the new collective bargaining agreement, all teams roll over unused cap space from the previous year. For the Raiders, this would increase their cap to 176 million, which gives the team approximately 46.5 million in cap space. This sounds like a large sum, but to put this in perspective, ten teams have more cap space than the Raiders, only four teams have less than 10 million in cap space, and two of those are in the negatives.
What the new collective bargaining agreement was designed to do, was allow teams to retain their players. The teams in the NFL wanted to increase their potential abilities to retain players with the threat of free agency looming. In the past CBA, cap increases were minimal, under this one cap increases are massive, plus the ability to roll over the cap increases it even more. We have seen that players are getting paid, but more often than not, it is that player's current team that is paying them. Over the last four years, as teams clear out old CBA contracts and go to more year by year contract structures, we are seeing less and less quality players hitting free agency. This has created an even greater push towards developing drafted players.
I will dip into the specifics of this free agency class later, suffice to say, there is a ton of money floating around the NFL, and there are not as many quality players to soak it up. This will price a team like the Raiders out. Derek Carr is slated to earn 977 thousand next season and I anticipate he will receive a contract that sets the record for year to year contract value at 25 million per year. That will break the record set by Andrew Luck and Drew Brees. This will create an increase of 24 million in cap spending for Raiders, leaving 22 million. Note that teams set aside approximately seven million per year for rookies and like to have 3 million for moves during the season. This puts the Raiders already at only 12 million in cap space left. Add in 10 million per year for Gabe Jackson to match the league leaders at right guard and now you can see all of that cap space has disappeared.
Can the Raiders create some cap space? Most notably the Raiders can create about 8 million in cap space by cutting Dan Williams and Austin Howard, but the question is, can they replace for less than that, those players? I do not think so. Most likely, we will see the Raiders renegotiate those deals and cut both salaries a little. Also, the Raiders are not necessarily pressed for players. They already have 54 contracted for 2017 which is one player more than the 53 players they will roster during the season after training camp.
We also cannot forget the free agents the Raiders will have. The Raiders will have 18 free agents including Malcolm Smith, Perry Riley, Stacey McGee, Mychael Rivera, Nate Allen, Andre Holmes, Menelik Watson, Latavius Murray, Denico Autry, and DJ Hayden. Of these, Malcolm Smith, Perry Riley, Stacey McGee, and Nate Allen all make a ton of sense to resign. With what money? That is the question.
The topper for all of this, Reggie McKenzie comes from a mindset that tends to avoid free agency. It really is a value proposition. If the Raiders have more players leaving that are productive elsewhere and do not sign free agents, they will receive compensatory picks who will receive small rookie contracts for four years. There is a lot of sense in this value proposition and believing it is the proper way to proceed moving forward. Imagine if the Raiders let all of those free agents they have walk and all get deals elsewhere while the Raiders resign nobody, they can receive a decent compensatory pick or two which can be converted into a solid role player for several years. There has to be a belief from an organizational standpoint, in the scouting abilities of the front office and their ability to fill out the back end of the roster with undrafted free agents with upside, if a team is going to be truly effective long term.
All good teams do this, the difference between them, is how the decide which positions and position groups do they choose to invest in with draft picks, new contracts, and free agents. Based on their track record, the Raiders have placed the least value at running back and inside linebacker. Even with that, the Raiders will go into next season with three running backs they use regularly on roster and four young inside linebackers all on rookie contracts. what we have here is a question about value. Teams in the NFL are limited in their spending and therefore cannot be truly balanced. It is about playing complimentary football, and the Raiders need to approach how they continue to build this team with that in mind. That means on offense where they have a juggernaut, score early and often to force teams away from the run and into the pass. On defense, rush the passer and create turnovers. The Raiders for a multitude of reasons were not able to do this consistently, but they have many of the pieces in place to get there quickly.
The Free Agency Class-
With everything else I have laid out regarding the Raiders cap and the issues facing them form a resources standpoint, there is another substantial issue facing the Raiders front office. This free agency class sucks. First, the talent isn't great, but also, the teams have so much money that the few good free agents will be resigned. The few good ones who do hit the market such as Alshon Jeffrey, Calais Campbell, and the others of that type, will find teams like the Browns who have 100 million in cap space that they can spend on older players and guys looking for one last big pay day. The Browns are who the Raiders were when they signed Woodley and Tuck, they just are not inhibited by absurd dead cap space.
From here I will respond to the names I see frequently brought up for the Raiders. Eric Berry and Dontari Poe should both be retained by the Chiefs. Kansas City only has at this time 4.6 million in cap space, however, by cutting Nick Foles and Jamaal Charles they will free up approximately 17 million in cap space. Combine that with restructures for Maclin, Derrick Johnson, and Tamba Hali and the Chiefs could easily generate an additional 10 million in cap space getting their total number upwards of 32 million. Of the two players Dontari Poe is more likely to hit free agency, but again if he does hit free agency a team like the Brown could easily pay 15 million per year for him.
Kawaan Short is another name that is constantly floated around for the Raiders. I understand the notion although he plays as a penetrating three technique in a 43 defense, while the Raiders play more or a 34 defense. He could be a shade nose tackle that would be undersized but expected to win with speed. The problem is, the Panthers have more cap space than the Raiders and they do not have to give a massive pay raise to a quarterback.
Hankins, the nose tackle from the New York Giants, would be a logical scheme fit for the Raiders. The Giants currently have 23 million in cap space, and can add 7.5 million more by cutting Cruz, 3.75 million more by cutting Vereen, and over two more million by cutting Jennings. Even with Jason Pierre-Paul being a free agent, they could resign both by using upfront guarantees. This is an advantage teams like the Giants have. Because they have massive cash reservoirs, they can cut a huge check upfront and have those guarantees prorated. Al Davis used to do this and it turned out to hurt the team massively. Reggie McKenzie instead has given guys larger year to year cap numbers that are treated on a year to year guarantee basis that kicks in at a certain point in the NFL year. While giving the team more freedom, it does mean the best players will demand more yearly to compensate for the risk.
Of all of the potential free agents out there, the only one of notable impact I imagine the Raiders even considering or having a plausible shot at getting is Tony Jefferson. The Raiders did pursue him last year and he even retweeted me when I said the Raider should blow away his RFA tag, but the Raiders instead signed Reggie Nelson. The Cardinals will be limited in who they can retain, especially because they spent so much draft capital acquiring Chandler Jones who is also a free agent. I expect Tony Jefferson to be a free agent, but not to sign with the Raiders.
Wrap Up-
I have spent a long time in this blog post talking about millions of dollars, free agency spending, and CBA terms, to make the very simple claim that the Raiders will not sign anyone in free agency. I find it difficult to see how the Raiders will be able to retain any of their own players this offseason. Raiders beat writer Vic Tafur has said many times on twitter that it would shock him if the Raiders resigned Latavius Murray. The last few years, Raiders fans were spoiled by a steady and smart acquisition of solid free agents, but that ends now. This franchise will have to begin to think, prepare, and act like a contender who will be leveraged by protecting and paying its best asset, it's quarterback. From there, the Raiders have an all pro defender in Khalil Mack who will get paid next year along with Mario Edwards Jr. if he has a good year. The year after that, it will be Amari Cooper. That is the core of the team and paying those assets will make it very hard for the team to compete in free agency. It is time to trust in the process going forward, but we will likely be pretty bored in March.
The Raiders had a phenomenal season. I hoped for a 9-7 season, and we were blessed with a 12-4 outcome. Two weeks after that game, the Raiders led by fourth round rookie quarterback Connor Cook, were beaten in a relatively meager effort against the Houston Texans, who in turn got the snot beat out of them by the Patriots. If it makes Raider Nation feel better, the Kansas Chiefs won precisely the same amount of playoff games this year as the Raiders did. None.
Unlike most seasons, I had not really thought about the offseason approach for the Raiders until that very moment when Carr got hurt. Week 16 is much later than the week 8 that was typical for the last 4 years of my blogging career. While on the subject of "not typical", it is the not so humble opinion of mine, that the Raiders will not do what everyone expects from them and go into another major free agency overhaul. In fact, it is my belief that the Raiders will not sign a single free agent. I absolutely withhold the right to be utterly wrong, but I will throw out some facts to show this is not just a hot take but a well reasoned assessment.
Retaining Talent-
The Oakland Raiders have drafted very well over the last several drafts and now we will witness those draft picks cash in. First and foremost are Derek Carr and Gabe Jackson. Many lump Khalil Mack into this group, however, he was drafted in round one so he has a fifth year option the Raiders will pick up. This gives the Raiders an extra year to get him extended, even though they can extend him this offseason. Moreover, the fifth year option once picked up, will act as a beginning place for negotiations, as the player agent and the team will use it to build the structure of the deal. It really is a tool to assist negotiations for both sides. Also, it behooves the Raiders to stagger the signings of Carr and Mack that way the contract structures do not overlap in ways that can potentially make tough decisions on both guys occur at once.
According to Over The Cap (http://overthecap.com/salary-cap/oakland-raiders/), the Raiders are looking at approximately 130 million dollars in cap liabilities. The NFL will be raising the cap to somewhere between 160 and 170 million. For approximation purposes, we will copy OTC and use 168 million as the 2017 cap. Also, as part of the new collective bargaining agreement, all teams roll over unused cap space from the previous year. For the Raiders, this would increase their cap to 176 million, which gives the team approximately 46.5 million in cap space. This sounds like a large sum, but to put this in perspective, ten teams have more cap space than the Raiders, only four teams have less than 10 million in cap space, and two of those are in the negatives.
What the new collective bargaining agreement was designed to do, was allow teams to retain their players. The teams in the NFL wanted to increase their potential abilities to retain players with the threat of free agency looming. In the past CBA, cap increases were minimal, under this one cap increases are massive, plus the ability to roll over the cap increases it even more. We have seen that players are getting paid, but more often than not, it is that player's current team that is paying them. Over the last four years, as teams clear out old CBA contracts and go to more year by year contract structures, we are seeing less and less quality players hitting free agency. This has created an even greater push towards developing drafted players.
I will dip into the specifics of this free agency class later, suffice to say, there is a ton of money floating around the NFL, and there are not as many quality players to soak it up. This will price a team like the Raiders out. Derek Carr is slated to earn 977 thousand next season and I anticipate he will receive a contract that sets the record for year to year contract value at 25 million per year. That will break the record set by Andrew Luck and Drew Brees. This will create an increase of 24 million in cap spending for Raiders, leaving 22 million. Note that teams set aside approximately seven million per year for rookies and like to have 3 million for moves during the season. This puts the Raiders already at only 12 million in cap space left. Add in 10 million per year for Gabe Jackson to match the league leaders at right guard and now you can see all of that cap space has disappeared.
Can the Raiders create some cap space? Most notably the Raiders can create about 8 million in cap space by cutting Dan Williams and Austin Howard, but the question is, can they replace for less than that, those players? I do not think so. Most likely, we will see the Raiders renegotiate those deals and cut both salaries a little. Also, the Raiders are not necessarily pressed for players. They already have 54 contracted for 2017 which is one player more than the 53 players they will roster during the season after training camp.
We also cannot forget the free agents the Raiders will have. The Raiders will have 18 free agents including Malcolm Smith, Perry Riley, Stacey McGee, Mychael Rivera, Nate Allen, Andre Holmes, Menelik Watson, Latavius Murray, Denico Autry, and DJ Hayden. Of these, Malcolm Smith, Perry Riley, Stacey McGee, and Nate Allen all make a ton of sense to resign. With what money? That is the question.
The topper for all of this, Reggie McKenzie comes from a mindset that tends to avoid free agency. It really is a value proposition. If the Raiders have more players leaving that are productive elsewhere and do not sign free agents, they will receive compensatory picks who will receive small rookie contracts for four years. There is a lot of sense in this value proposition and believing it is the proper way to proceed moving forward. Imagine if the Raiders let all of those free agents they have walk and all get deals elsewhere while the Raiders resign nobody, they can receive a decent compensatory pick or two which can be converted into a solid role player for several years. There has to be a belief from an organizational standpoint, in the scouting abilities of the front office and their ability to fill out the back end of the roster with undrafted free agents with upside, if a team is going to be truly effective long term.
All good teams do this, the difference between them, is how the decide which positions and position groups do they choose to invest in with draft picks, new contracts, and free agents. Based on their track record, the Raiders have placed the least value at running back and inside linebacker. Even with that, the Raiders will go into next season with three running backs they use regularly on roster and four young inside linebackers all on rookie contracts. what we have here is a question about value. Teams in the NFL are limited in their spending and therefore cannot be truly balanced. It is about playing complimentary football, and the Raiders need to approach how they continue to build this team with that in mind. That means on offense where they have a juggernaut, score early and often to force teams away from the run and into the pass. On defense, rush the passer and create turnovers. The Raiders for a multitude of reasons were not able to do this consistently, but they have many of the pieces in place to get there quickly.
The Free Agency Class-
With everything else I have laid out regarding the Raiders cap and the issues facing them form a resources standpoint, there is another substantial issue facing the Raiders front office. This free agency class sucks. First, the talent isn't great, but also, the teams have so much money that the few good free agents will be resigned. The few good ones who do hit the market such as Alshon Jeffrey, Calais Campbell, and the others of that type, will find teams like the Browns who have 100 million in cap space that they can spend on older players and guys looking for one last big pay day. The Browns are who the Raiders were when they signed Woodley and Tuck, they just are not inhibited by absurd dead cap space.
From here I will respond to the names I see frequently brought up for the Raiders. Eric Berry and Dontari Poe should both be retained by the Chiefs. Kansas City only has at this time 4.6 million in cap space, however, by cutting Nick Foles and Jamaal Charles they will free up approximately 17 million in cap space. Combine that with restructures for Maclin, Derrick Johnson, and Tamba Hali and the Chiefs could easily generate an additional 10 million in cap space getting their total number upwards of 32 million. Of the two players Dontari Poe is more likely to hit free agency, but again if he does hit free agency a team like the Brown could easily pay 15 million per year for him.
Kawaan Short is another name that is constantly floated around for the Raiders. I understand the notion although he plays as a penetrating three technique in a 43 defense, while the Raiders play more or a 34 defense. He could be a shade nose tackle that would be undersized but expected to win with speed. The problem is, the Panthers have more cap space than the Raiders and they do not have to give a massive pay raise to a quarterback.
Hankins, the nose tackle from the New York Giants, would be a logical scheme fit for the Raiders. The Giants currently have 23 million in cap space, and can add 7.5 million more by cutting Cruz, 3.75 million more by cutting Vereen, and over two more million by cutting Jennings. Even with Jason Pierre-Paul being a free agent, they could resign both by using upfront guarantees. This is an advantage teams like the Giants have. Because they have massive cash reservoirs, they can cut a huge check upfront and have those guarantees prorated. Al Davis used to do this and it turned out to hurt the team massively. Reggie McKenzie instead has given guys larger year to year cap numbers that are treated on a year to year guarantee basis that kicks in at a certain point in the NFL year. While giving the team more freedom, it does mean the best players will demand more yearly to compensate for the risk.
Of all of the potential free agents out there, the only one of notable impact I imagine the Raiders even considering or having a plausible shot at getting is Tony Jefferson. The Raiders did pursue him last year and he even retweeted me when I said the Raider should blow away his RFA tag, but the Raiders instead signed Reggie Nelson. The Cardinals will be limited in who they can retain, especially because they spent so much draft capital acquiring Chandler Jones who is also a free agent. I expect Tony Jefferson to be a free agent, but not to sign with the Raiders.
Wrap Up-
I have spent a long time in this blog post talking about millions of dollars, free agency spending, and CBA terms, to make the very simple claim that the Raiders will not sign anyone in free agency. I find it difficult to see how the Raiders will be able to retain any of their own players this offseason. Raiders beat writer Vic Tafur has said many times on twitter that it would shock him if the Raiders resigned Latavius Murray. The last few years, Raiders fans were spoiled by a steady and smart acquisition of solid free agents, but that ends now. This franchise will have to begin to think, prepare, and act like a contender who will be leveraged by protecting and paying its best asset, it's quarterback. From there, the Raiders have an all pro defender in Khalil Mack who will get paid next year along with Mario Edwards Jr. if he has a good year. The year after that, it will be Amari Cooper. That is the core of the team and paying those assets will make it very hard for the team to compete in free agency. It is time to trust in the process going forward, but we will likely be pretty bored in March.